By Geoff Bacino, Bacino & Associates

Two significant events contributed to upending the presidential race. First, former President Trump was shot at while speaking before a rally in Pennsylvania. He survived and the Republican Convention, held just three days after the assassination attempt, was a show of unity. Even former Trump rivals Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis gave full-throated support to the former President.

The race took an even bigger turn on Sunday, July 21, when President Biden announced that he would not be running for re-election and was throwing his support to Vice President Harris. While he had been under pressure from Democrats and donors alike, Biden continued to insist that he was staying in the race. This all changed with his announcement that he was not going to run. For Democrats, the coincidence is that the last time an incumbent president decided not to run for re-election was in 1968. That’s also the last time the Democrats had their convention in Chicago.

The big question now is who Kamala Harris will pick as her running mate. These are the five most likely choices:

• Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro – seems to check all the boxes as he won in a landslide in 2022 and heads a state that Democrats must have to win again in 2024;

• Arizona Senator Mark Kelly—As an astronaut and the spouse of former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, Kelly is a national hero. He has been outspoken on the need for immigration reform. If he was chosen and the Harris/Kelly ticket won, Arizona’s Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs would appoint his successor. However, that person would be forced to run in a special election in 2026 and then again in 2028.

• Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear – He won statewide office in a deep red state, but the fact that Trump won the state by 25 points might mean he couldn’t deliver in his home state.

• Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg – ran a formidable campaign in 2020, even “winning” the Iowa caucus. He, too, comes from a red state – Indiana – which means that he most likely can’t deliver those electoral votes.

• Illinois Governor JB Pritzker – While he comes from a solid blue state, the fact that Pritzker is the heir to the Hyatt Hotel fortune means that he could write a sizeable check to the campaign. And money is always needed in campaigns.

Two names that were initially floated may not pan out. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer told reporters she wasn’t considering leaving the Wolverine state. “I am not leaving Michigan. I am proud to be the governor of Michigan…I’m not going anywhere,” she stated. While she might change her mind, the timeframe involved would leave one to believe she has taken her name out of consideration.

The other popular name is California Governor Gavin Newsom. Seen by some as the candidate sent by central casting, a Harris/Newsom ticket would run into issues with the 12th amendment that does not allow electors to cast a ballot for a president and vice president from the same state. In essence, this would mean that the Democrats would have to forego the 54 electoral votes from California, which would doom their chances in the general election.