The December jobs report dropped this morning, and if you squint just right, it almost looks… fine?
The U.S. added 50,000 jobs in December while unemployment fell to 4.4%. On the surface, that’s not terrible. But zoom out even slightly, and the picture gets a lot more complicated.
The Year That Hiring Forgot
Here’s the headline that should have everyone’s attention: The economy averaged just 49,000 jobs added per month in 2025, compared to 168,000 in 2024.
That’s not a typo. Monthly job gains dropped by more than two-thirds year-over-year.
“The economy averaged just 49,000 jobs added in 2025 compared to 168,000 in 2024, a decline that signals weakening demand for hiring, with December’s jobs coming in below expectations and prior months revised down,” said Dawit Kebede, Chief Economist at America’s Credit Unions.
For context, 2025’s total employment growth of 584,000 jobs is the worst year outside of a recession since 2003. Even 2010—coming off the Great Recession—saw better hiring than 2025.
The Good News Buried in the Bad
There is a silver lining, however. Unemployment actually fell from 4.6% in November to 4.4% in December. The household survey (which tracks whether people have jobs) showed 232,000 more people employed.
So how can hiring be weak while unemployment drops? Welcome to what economists are calling a “jobless boom”—solid economic growth continues, but companies aren’t hiring.
Kebede noted, “With solid economic growth continuing and the unemployment rate actually falling despite weak hiring and slower labor supply growth, the Fed will likely hold rates steady rather than cut, and markets are now pricing in the first rate cut for June.”
Translation: Don’t expect the Federal Reserve to rush in with rate cuts anytime soon.
Who’s Actually Hiring?
December’s job gains came primarily from three sectors:
- Food services and drinking places: +27,000
- Health care: +21,000
- Social assistance: +17,000
Retail, meanwhile, shed 25,000 jobs. Government added just 2,000.
But here’s the wild stat: For the full year, health care and leisure/hospitality accounted for 84% of all job gains while making up only 22% of employment. Every other industry? Pretty much treading water or worse.
What This Means for Credit Unions
In an environment where companies are “slow to hire and slow to fire,” members are likely feeling the squeeze even if they’re still employed. Wage growth has slowed, long-term unemployment is rising, and economic uncertainty remains high.
But credit unions aren’t sitting this one out.
“Credit unions remain America’s steady financial partner regardless of the shifts in the greater economic picture and stand ready to support their members,” Kebede said.
That support looks like flexible loan options when members need breathing room, financial counseling when job situations change, and the kind of member-first service that big banks abandoned years ago.
The Bottom Line
The December jobs report is a mixed bag wrapped in confusing signals. Unemployment is down, which is good. But hiring is anemic, which isn’t. The economy is growing, but not in ways that feel great for Main Street.
Credit unions have seen economic cycles come and go. The cooperative model isn’t built for boom times—it’s built for all times. When hiring freezes and uncertainty rises, members need institutions that actually care about their financial wellbeing.
That’s not going to change whether the Fed cuts rates in June or holds steady through 2026.
How is your credit union preparing for a low-growth hiring environment? Share your strategies in the comments below.