By 2030, a shopper could ask an AI concierge for a birthday gift, and the assistant would pick the card, set the amount and send it. The shopper wouldn’t open a retailer’s website or app at any point. That’s the scenario 42% of U.S. payments leaders see as the most likely way AI will reshape gift card buying, according to new research from Blackhawk Network (BHN).
BHN’s AI & Branded Payments Study surveyed 694 U.S. business leaders responsible for incentives, commerce and branded payments. The goal was to find out how these leaders expect AI to change the way people discover, choose and buy gift cards, especially as assistants start acting on a shopper’s behalf.
Three versions of the AI-powered future
Respondents split across a few visions of how this plays out:
- 42%Â expect the full concierge model, where AI recommends a card, picks the value and sends it without the consumer touching a retailer’s site or app.
- 32%Â expect AI to recommend cards based on a recipient’s interests, past purchases and preferences.
- 24%Â expect assistants to buy and deliver the right card on their own for preapproved occasions.
“AI has the potential to change not only how consumers find the right gift, but how that purchase ultimately gets made,” said Talbott Roche, CEO and president of BHN. She added that as assistants take a bigger role in shopping, brands will have to work out how to stay discoverable, relevant and connected to customers when an agent helps decide what gets bought.
Companies are already getting ready
Most businesses aren’t waiting. Twenty-three percent of those surveyed are building or piloting for agentic commerce, which is shopping where AI agents act for the consumer. Another 47% are actively exploring what it means for their branded payments programs. That adds up to roughly 7 in 10 leaders. Twenty-two percent know about it but haven’t acted, and only 8% say they aren’t thinking about it yet.
A new channel for gift cards
The research suggests AI could become a new distribution channel for branded payments, and a way to weave gift cards more naturally into daily life. An assistant might surface a gift card a shopper already owns when they’re browsing at the right retailer. It might also suggest a card and a budget ahead of a loved one’s big occasion.
Once assistants can take people from recommendation to purchase in a single interaction, brands will need to make gift cards and stored value easy for AI systems to find, understand and recommend with confidence.
“For brands, the broader opportunity is to make stored value more useful in the moments when consumers are ready to act, while still giving them transparency and control over the experience,” Roche said.
Beyond the checkout
Customer experience was the area where 35% of respondents expect AI to have the greatest effect on branded payments by 2030. Businesses also said they want better data and analytics, along with more personalized gifting experiences, as they decide how to put AI to work in their programs.
Gift cards have always depended on a shopper remembering to give one. Soon, the software helping that shopper may decide which brands get remembered.